Journaling recession since 2008
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Is a new recession coming? Recession 2012 or Depression 2012 !
October 1, 2011 Update Part A
On September 20 of last year the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER concluded that the recession which began at the end of 2007 came to a close in June of 2009, making it the longest recession since the Great Depression, by their method.
The NBER wrote:
"The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.
The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date."
October 1, 2011 Update Part B
The expansion, which technically began in mid-2009, has been one of the shortest and weakest of the post WWII era. This disappointing performance is largely due to the hangover left in the wake of the historic housing and credit bubble of the 2000s, and ensuing global financial & economic meltdown.
By September, 2011, many economic forecasters (not Wall Street pump 'n dumpers) were ratcheting up their risk of recession calls to as much as 50%, a few even higher. At the end of that month these warnings were really punctuated by forecast of outright imminent recession from the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
In its public announcement, ECRI noted:
"Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off."
Monday, 7 November 2011 5:35 AM ET
Right here the U.S. economy is dipping into a recession and nothing that has transpired changes a forecast for a recession, says Lakshman Achuthan,
Economic Cycle Research co-founder/chief operations office, who adds that
highly negative growth rate is still being seen by key economic data Source: CNBC.com
Friday, 30 September 2011 5:25 AM ET
There is a contagion among those forward looking
indicators that we only see a business cycle recession, says
Lakshman Achuthan, The Economic Cycle Research Institute, who explains the meaning of recession is a process, not just two consecutive negative GDP reports Source: CNBC.com
November 18, 2011 If you are putting together an emergency-preparedness kit, it is important to remember that you need to have more than just freeze-dried foods, (see what's new & more!), and other food items packed away in storage. After all, the food won’t do you much good if you have no way to prepare it and you won’t survive for long if you do not have water available.
Therefore, it is essential to include water as well as some sort of heating source in your kit. Still, even with the proper equipment available, you will need to keep a few emergency cooking tips in mind in order to make your food, equipment, water and other supplies last as long as possible.
What else should you consider?
When it comes to emergency food preparation, some things you need to know include:
- Most freeze-dried foods are ready to eat just 10 to 12 minutes after adding hot water.
- Freeze-dried foods can be prepared with cold water, but are generally more flavorful when prepared with hot water.
- Just bringing water to a boil will destroy all harmful pathogens, so don’t waste fuel and water (through evaporation) by boiling it longer.
- Have plenty of food items in storage that do not require cooking.
- Include a reliable heating source, such as Stove In A Can, in your emergency kit.
- Include ingredient items such as salt and sugar in your emergency kit to help add flavor to your meals and to use with making fresh food items, such as bread.
- Remember that flour does not store well over the long-term, so include grain and a mill in your kit so you can make your own flour.
If you do not regularly prepare meals from freeze-dried items or from scratch, you might also want to practice making a few meals. This way, you can become comfortable with the process. You might also want to include a book containing a few recipes and tips within your kit. This way, you will be more comfortable making meals when the time comes.
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The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has forecast an imminent recession to unfold in the United States. Check back often to stay updated on this developing story. Tag: ECRI, Page: ECRI